The BBC’s 5 year overview of the results of Brexit (published last week and authored by Ben Chu and Tamara Kovacevis), strikes a careful tone of neutrality, but can‘t disguise the damage done to our economy and society by Brexit.
It starts by saying “Brexit was hugely divisive, both politically and socially, dominating political debate and with arguments about its impacts raging for years”.
The authors select 5 areas for review. Here are a few highlights:
1. Trade
The authors say that some recent studies suggest UK exports are 30% lower than they would have been if we had not left the single market and customs union.
Several studies suggest around this figure. One example from the Centre for Business Prosperity Aston University; Unbound: UK Trade post-Brexit (September 2024; authored by By Jun Du, Xingyi Liu, Oleksandr Shepotylo and Yujie Shi). Find it on:
https://www.aston.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2024-09/Full%20Report.pdf.
Alternatively we have a different figure from the Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper no 2066. (December 2024 authored by Rebecca Freemen et al) They put the drop at only 6.4%.
The Office of Budget Responsibility still believes that the long-term reduction in imports and exports will be 15% and that will continue to reduce the size of the economy by 4%
New trade deals with other countries seem to make up for about 5% of the total loss from Brexit (my calculation). but we still await deals with India and the US.
2. Migration:
EU net immigration fell from 300,000 in 2016 to a negative rate now as more EU citizens left the UK than came in.
Non EU migration increased from from 70/80,000in 2016 to 900,000 last year
3. Travel
UK citizens have lost the right of residence in the EU.
The EU is introducing 2 new measures to control travel from outside EU next year, either or both of which could create a great deal of travel delay and inconvenience.
4. Laws
Many EU laws have stayed on the statute book despite the expressed intention of the last government to remove them
5. Money
Like all EU members the UK paid a contribution to the EU’s kitty, and that stopped in 2020. Our annual payment into the EU at that stage was £18bn. However, with rebates and payments coming back in from the EU amounting to about half of that, the notional annual saving is £9bn.
derby4europe 