The other week Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said it was unlikely that US tariffs on UK imports would be less than 10%. The message that I took from it was sombre: ‘Don’t get your hopes up. There’s no give there.’
But then last week Vice-President Vance said there was a ‘good chance’ of a trade deal between the UK and the US. I took that as a message of hope and optimism. Phew! Its looking better!
Then it struck me: hot and cold, up and down, its all part of the Trump playbook, isn’t it. Keep changing the message, blow hot and cold, keep them guessing. That way, the other guy is always on the back foot. This was Trump’s preferred technique in his New York real-estate days, and he has carried it into world politics. Its part of his transactional approach, part of the zero-sum game. For Trump to win, the other guy has to lose, so it makes sense to disable and demoralize him as thoroughly as possible. Play cat and mouse with him until he doesn’t know which way is up. That way he’s always the loser.
So far the UK government has allowed itself play the role of loser to perfection. Every time Trump or one of his minions throws a stick, the government goes tearing after it like a keen but none-too-bright retriever. To and fro, up and down. Our behaviour has given Trump all the evidence he needs that his technique works. Clearly it does.
So is there anything we can do to change the game? Can we find a way of giving ourselves some agency, instead of being endlessly reactive?
Yes we can. There’s still time to stop and think: who matters most? who is our closest ally and our biggest trading partner? The answer, of course, is not the USA. Its the EU. If we turn ourselves inside out in order to please Trump, two things will happen. First, Trump will always demand more. And second, we will alienate ourselves from our European partners- an outcome which is almost certainly part of Trump’s agenda already, and reflects his hostility to the EU and his desire for maximum dominance over whoever is within his range. In that scenario we will soon be eating chlorinated chicken, and the possibility of a better and closer relationship with the EU will be lost.
That threatens our economy, but it also threatens our security. Its clear that Trump is not interested in NATO, or in Europe’s security. He has made that clear over Ukraine. He won’t protect us. The UK needs to restore a closer relationship with those countries that have a real stake in mutual security and mutual support. That means the EU.
So, no more cat and mouse Keir! Get your priorities right while you still can.
Stephen Wilmot
P.S. A deeper and more extensive treatment of the bigger picture has recently been offered by journalist Ian Dunt. I recommend it. Click here.
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