The National Bureau of Economic Research is an independent economic research institute based in the US. This November it produced an analysis of the economic impact of Brexit on the UK economy. Its more damning even than other recent negative reports. I quote the NBER summary below:
Note the impact of Brexit on investment in the UK. Its one of the big weaknesses in the UK economy – we have been bottom of the G7 league for some years. Its what falling behind looks like.
Find the NBER with more information here.
“Authors: Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites
Working Paper 34459
DOI 10.3386/w34459
Issue DateNovember 2025
This paper examines the impact of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade“.
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