Our path back to Europe is steep and treacherous indeed; and just to remind us of that, Europe underwent a serious test the other week when Trump threatened to grab Greenland from Denmark by force. If he had gone ahead, its hard to see how Denmark, or anyone else, could have stopped him. The US already has troops there, (legitimately, by treaty) and could have flown many more in from Alaska. The symbolic contingents from other European states could not have resisted. Europe would have had to confine itself to diplomatic, economic and symbolic measures in response, probably hurting themselves more than they could hurt Trump.
But Trump backed off. Perhaps it was too dire even for him to commit an act of war against an ostensible ally, when he saw that they were not going to cave in, and were supported by other NATO states. Of course he could have trampled over all of that; but he stopped short. If he had gone ahead, it would have been irrevocable, and maybe that was too much for him. Starmer stood with Europe on this, though in a rather lukewarm way. That was a small step in the right direction. I wonder what Badenoch or Farage would have done.
Two important things came out of this. The first is the urgent need for the UK and Europe to free themselves from dependence on the US. That will take some years, and those years will be tense and dangerous.
The second thing is Canada. Mark Carney made a speech at Davos arguing that the ‘rules-based world order’ is now history, and middle-rank powers must move away from dependence on the US, toward a policy of mutual support among themselves. What he didn’t say, but clearly implied, was that the US, far from being a reliable protector, is now a predator-power like Russia and China. He didn’t need to spell that out, but the US is clearly a potential danger to Canada and to Europe. For Canada the danger is invasion and occupation, which Trump has implied as a possibility. For Europe the danger is abandonment to the tender mercies of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. As Carney said ’if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.’
Porfirio Diaz, Mexican president in the late 19th century once lamented ‘Poor Mexico! so far from God, so close to the United States!’ Those words must be in Carney’s mind right now. But at least he has the beginnings of a plan. And if Canada is too close to the United States, Europe is too close to Russia. For both, we can easily imagine the menu: Europe falling under Russian domination, fulfilling Stalin’s dream; Canada becoming the 51st state (too big, actually; it would have to be several states).
But as Carney implied, Europe and Canada could chart an alternative path. Europe has population- way in advance of Russia, even of the US. And there is strength in numbers, properly mobilized. Canada is light on population but rich in resources, especially oil. Oil is the key to power in the international jungle, and it’s the lack of oil that makes Europe so vulnerable. Canadian oil could free Europe from dependence on Russian gas. But Canada would need something back; strong allies committed to mutual aid, NATO-style. Any takers?
derby4europe 