Category: National Events

National Events

Munich and After

by stephenwilmot1, posted in Blog, National Events

First, the Munich security conference. A lot of energy went into the mood music at Munich. Marco Rubio was much nicer than Vance was at the same do last year. That’s hardly a great achievement, given Vance’s behaviour, and Rubio had an easy ride, waxing sentimental about the European roots of the US, and drawing some pathetically grateful applause from members of his European audience. But the substance of what he said was the same as last year, in an even worse situation. His warm words don’t begin to repair the damage done over Greenland.

There was Munich mood music also from Starmer, who spoke of the end of the Brexit era, proclaiming a page turned in our relationship with the EU. It sounded great, but he didn’t actually have anything substantial on offer, so, yes, it was really all about mood. Certainly that mood was positive, and as a way of celebrating the negotiations with Europe over the past year, it was a positive look. But what has been achieved is limited, and the road ahead is as potholed as the A52. Also someone has noticed a new pothole- the UK’s Foie Gras ban which could mess up the negotiation of the veterinary agreement. We need more than mood music to get us over that.

However, its not now clear whether it matters any more what Starmer says or does. On the one hand the Gorton and Denton byelection result changes the landscape, with Labour coming in third, and the pro-Europe Greens winning handsomely, pushing reform into second place. So Starmer is more damaged than ever, and it will be interesting to see (1) how long he can last and (2) whether he will henceforth be able to summon up the political momentum to do anything further with Europe. On the other hand he is now half- supporting Trump’s attack on Iran, and wartime prime ministers typically get an extra lease of life in the short term. But he is stirring up a fair bit of indignation on the left over his subordination to Trump. So his extra lease could be very short indeed.

Assuming (and there’s no certainty on this) that the Iran war doesn’t create a national emergency and a major upheaval in the UK, and politics continues as usual, then we have the prospect of three years of rule by a disintegrating Labour party and a zombified Starmer. Slow torture. And, to twist the knife, unless the Greens work their magic on a grand scale, a Reform government awaits at the end of it. It would be great to think that the Greens will take over as the bulwark against Reform, keep them out of government, and keep the European momentum going. But I fear that’s a fantasy. Gorton and Denton is an untypical constituency, and anyway we need a different coalition to keep the European cause afloat. The Green accommodation with Your Party and the Gaza group won’t exactly strengthen their pro-Europe agenda. Who can rejoiners rely on?

Lib Dems to force vote on creating new customs union with EU.

by stephenwilmot1, posted in National Events

An interesting initiative from the Lib Dems. The Commons vote was set to be 2 weeks after the budget, so its soon.. This won’t change government policy in the near future, but it is a Lib Dem device to reveal support among pro-EU MPs.

Rowena Mason of the Guardian quotes Davey as saying:

“The chancellor has admitted the damage Brexit has done to our economy, including burying British businesses in mountains of red tape, yet the government is refusing to take the steps needed to fix it. A customs union with the EU is the single biggest lever this government could pull to turbocharge the UK economy. We will work with MPs across parliament who want a closer trading relationship with Europe – to cut red tape, boost growth, and properly fund our public services.”

Rowena Mason says that The Lib Dem plans propose a bespoke customs union with the EU by 2030, suggesting it could be similar to the one it has had with Turkey since 1995.

“Call a public inquiry into Russian influence on UK politics & democracy”

by stephenwilmot1, posted in National Events

“On November 25th Nathan Gill, the Reform UK Welsh Leader was sentenced to ten and a half years in prison for taking Russian bribes in the European Parliament. Please sign and share this petition requesting an independent judicial public inquiry“

The above petition is a timely reminder of the need for the European Democracy Shield just mentioned. It exposes one of the routes through which disinformation from bad actors can penetrate our political system. It’s a reminder also of our need to commit to Europe’s collective security in the face of this threat. 

The Economic Impact of Brexit

by stephenwilmot1, posted in National Events

The National Bureau of Economic Research is an independent economic research institute based in the US. This November it produced an analysis of the economic impact of Brexit on the UK economy. Its more damning even than other recent negative reports. I quote the NBER summary below:

Note the impact of Brexit on investment in the UK. Its one of the big weaknesses in the UK economy – we have been bottom of the G7 league for some years. Its what falling behind looks like.

Find the NBER with more information here.

“Authors: Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites

Working Paper 34459

DOI 10.3386/w34459

Issue DateNovember 2025 

This paper examines the impact of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning micro-literature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade“.

Petition to Co-operate with the EU on Environmental Protection

by stephenwilmot1, posted in National Events

The European Movement has posted a petition on its website to support its call to the UK government for closer co-operation with the EU on environmental matters. It has produced a report which proposes four broad headings for co-operation.  These are discussed in detail. Also four specific actions are proposed to move this forward.

The four broad headings are:

1. Working together for climate safety and energy security

2. Building Europe’s Grid: Interconnectors and Joint Energy Planning

3. Alignment on Environmental Standards where it leads to higher standards

4. Rejoining Strategic Programmes and Agencies

The four specific actions to move this forward are:

  • To link Emissions Trading Systems and rejoin EU internal electricity market.
  • To join North Seas Energy Cooperation for offshore energy development.
  • To align regulations on chemicals, waste, air quality, and ecodesign.
  • To rejoin the European Environment Agency and LIFE programme.

The advantages of international co-operation are clear, and it is in the interests of the UK to co-operate with our nearest neighbours on this. So please sign the petition.

Breaking the Brexit Silence

by stephenwilmot1, posted in Blog, National Events

In recent weeks a number of senior figures in the UK have finally come out and said that Brexit has damaged the UK economy. Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Wes Streeting and most recently Andrew Bailey, Head of the Bank of England, have all acknowledged at different points during October, that Brexit is doing lasting harm to the UK economy. The importance of this development lies in what went before: the relative silence and avoidance that has been practiced by senior labour politicians and public officials since Brexit happened. The Brexit omerta, the ‘elephant in the room’ that we can’t mention, has been a huge frustration to pro-Europeans looking to move closer to Europe. But the taboo is finally being broken. No doubt Starmer, Reeves and Streeting co-ordinated their comments, and no doubt their decision was based on their view that the climate has now changed sufficiently for a more open debate at national level. Let’s hope they are right about that. But what about Bailey? Was he part of the plan? In some ways his was the most telling intervention.

There are risks in this. One of the problems in the 2016 referendum campaign was the widely held view that the ‘establishment’ were in favour of remaining in the EU, and Joe Public should accordingly be wary of pro-remain arguments, particularly those with a ‘project fear’ flavour. Brexit was presented as the democratic option, and the choice for optimists and patriots. We don’t want that perception to creep in again. Starmer et al need to make it clear that they are responding to popular concerns about the effects of Brexit rather than elite ‘I told you so’s. Moving back toward Europe needs to be presented as the path of hope and optimism.

What about the ECHR?

by stephenwilmot1, posted in Blog, National Events

The issue of the European Convention on Human Rights seems to be coming to a head as the Tories and Reform call for the withdrawal of the UK. The European Movement has posted an open letter to Hilary Benn, the relevant minister, calling on him to support the UK’s continued membership. The ECHR issue offers easy prey for the brexiteers in their project to widen the gulf between the UK and the EU. Withdrawal from the ECHR would certainly produce that result, both in generally, and also specifically in relation to the position of Northern Ireland under the EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement, and the Good Friday Agreement. It would be a damaging move, so please sign the open letter.

Its clear that the debate around the ECHR has been inflamed by the involvement of the European Court of Human Rights in asylum appeals. Given the extent of small boats anxiety in the UK, there is a danger of a hostile head of steam building up toward the ECHR among people who are not otherwise anti-Europe; something that has not been widespread hitherto. This could be a problem for the rejoin movement.

What is NOT being widely publicized is the fact that the UK government is pressing for ECHR rules to be amended to reduce the likelihood of the court’s appeals decisions undermining  UK government efforts with regard to illegal immigration. According to LBC this proposal to reform the ECHR is already supported by 16 European states (out of 25 signatory states) and has good prospects of success. But it needs to cut through to public awareness. The ECHR performs a very positive role in many areas, and its far better for the UK to push on with reforming it, rather than yet again pull out of an important European institution. As LBC points out, the only country so far to have left the ECHR is Russia. That should give us pause for thought.

Erasmus and Youth Mobility

by stephenwilmot1, posted in Blog, National Events

Interesting news in the last 6 days on Youth mobility and Erasmus. The BBC has reported that Rachel Reeves has joined EU negotiators in pressing for progress on the UK/EU Youth Mobility Scheme, seemingly pushing back against Starmer’s hesitation on this. She argues that the Scheme would be good for the UK economy. Clearly there’s an urgent need for something to be good for the economy, so maybe here it is. I guess it could go some way to easing labour shortages in certain sectors, such as hospitality. Is that the gift that she sees on offer?  If so, she needs to persuade certain of her colleagues, notably Starmer. Good luck!

Meanwhile the IPaper reports that the EU is also pressing for progress on UK re-entry into the Erasmus scheme (student exchange between the UK and the EU). Johnson pulled the UK out in 2020 because its expensive. And it would cost. But the long-term benefits of re-entry to the scheme would far outweigh the costs. Those benefits would be educational, but also social and cultural, and would nicely complement the Youth Mobility Scheme for the younger end of the age-range. Maybe the economic advantages of Youth Mobility would pay for Erasmus. That would be neat.

After Macron, Merz

by stephenwilmot1, posted in Blog, National Events

Hot on the heels of his meeting with Macron, Starmer met with the German Chancellor  Friedrich Merz last week. Clearly a lot of talking had been done under the radar beforehand, because an agreement- the Treaty of Kensington- emerged very quickly. This covers a range of areas as follows (I quote)

  • diplomatic cooperation on broader geopolitical issues;
  • defence and security;
  • internal security and coordination on combating illegal migration;
  • economic ties, science and research cooperation;
  • fostering people-to-people contacts;
  • cooperation on energy and climate policy. 

I’m indebted to Nicolai von Ondarza of Chatham house for his analysis of the treaty. He made two further points

  1. Mutual support on defence is the ‘centre of gravity’ this treaty.
  2. Together with the Macron-Starmer agreements a few days ago, it recreates the E3 group: The UK, France and Germany. This trio has the potential to provide the hub of the (slowly) developing European security system.

Its clearly a grand plan, slowly manifesting.

However, part of the context provided by von Ondarza makes depressing reading. The UK has drifted away from Europe on many levels since 2016, and he offered two examples relating to Germany:

  • The UK dropped from Germany’s third most important trading partner in 2016 to ninth in 2024
  • school exchanges from Germany to the UK have fallen by more than 80 per cent since Brexit.

However, it looks as though someone is finally trying to reverse that.